Southampton vs Derby Prediction & Odds
Championship · 11 April 2026 17:00 · Final score 2-1. Our prediction: Southampton win (56%) · odds 1.84. Most likely pick Over 1.5 79% (odds ~1.28). Prediction was correct ✓
Match result
Both teams to score
Total goals (over)
Expected goals: Southampton 1.87 – 1.06 Derby
Most likely scorelines
1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 9%3-1 6%
Southampton vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Southampton 1 wins, 1 draws, Derby 0 wins. 2.5 goals per game, both teams scored in 100%, over 2.5 in 50%.
| Date | League | Match | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Championship | Southampton – Derby | 2-1 | Southampton won |
| 2025-10-04 | Championship | Derby – Southampton | 1-1 | Draw |
Bookmaker odds
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | O2.5 | U2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exch. | 1.84 | 4.00 | 4.70 | 1.83 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.71 | 3.80 | 4.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Bet&Win | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.20 | — | — |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.40 | — | — |
| Betfred | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.20 | — | — |
Odds are indicative and can change. Betting loses money; 18+.
Recent matches
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Southampton vs Derby?
Our model gives southampton win a 56% chance; the draw is 24%.
Will both teams score?
Both teams to score: yes at 57%. Expected goals Southampton 1.87 – 1.06 Derby.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56%, under 44%. Over 1.5 79%, over 3.5 31%.
What is the Southampton vs Derby head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings Southampton won 1, Derby won 0 and 1 were drawn, with 2.5 goals per game and both teams scoring in 100% of them.
How reliable is this prediction?
Confidence: Yüksek. Data complete and in line with the bookmakers. Historically picks we called 80%+ landed about 82% of the time; nothing is guaranteed and betting loses money.
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- Norwich – Ipswich Over 1.5 %76
- QPR – Bristol City Over 1.5 %75
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- Leicester – Swansea Over 1.5 %76
- Middlesbrough – Portsmouth Over 1.5 %79
- Oxford – Watford Under 3.5 %76
- Sheffield United – Hull Over 1.5 %81
- Southampton – Derby Over 1.5 %79
- Stoke – Blackburn Under 3.5 %77
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More
- Southampton predictions and form
- Derby predictions and form
- Championship predictions and table
- All predictions for 11 April 2026
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