Prediction Scorecard: Weekly Hit Rates
Every prediction is recorded before kick-off and scored against the real result; nothing is edited afterwards. Across 1487 matches the most likely pick landed 80% of the time (expected 80%); of the 645 picks we called 80%+, 84% landed.
| Week | Matches | Most likely pick | 80%+ picks | Value bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26.10 - 01.11 | 164 | 83% exp. 81% | 76/89 85% | 84/177 | +8.0% |
| 19.10 - 25.10 | 201 | 83% exp. 80% | 77/90 86% | 64/156 | +10.0% |
| 12.10 - 18.10 | 199 | 83% exp. 80% | 84/98 86% | 70/156 | +8.7% |
| 05.10 - 11.10 | 164 | 82% exp. 81% | 66/78 85% | 68/166 | +2.7% |
| 28.09 - 04.10 | 83 | 70% exp. 79% | 21/27 78% | 4/5 | +95.5% |
| 21.09 - 27.09 | 58 | 81% exp. 78% | 13/15 87% | 2/3 | +62.0% |
| 14.09 - 20.09 | 191 | 80% exp. 80% | 67/81 83% | 38/116 | -15.3% |
| 07.09 - 13.09 | 169 | 78% exp. 80% | 59/74 80% | 44/107 | +16.7% |
| 31.08 - 06.09 | 171 | 75% exp. 80% | 54/66 82% | 51/126 | +6.6% |
| 24.08 - 30.08 | 87 | 84% exp. 79% | 23/27 85% | 2/5 | +52.0% |
Calibration: do our probabilities hold up?
| Probability we said | Picks | Expected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30%-50% | 6066 | 42% | 42% |
| 50%-60% | 3621 | 54% | 54% |
| 60%-70% | 1580 | 65% | 64% |
| 70%-80% | 1702 | 75% | 74% |
| 80%-90% | 657 | 84% | 83% |
| 90%-100% | 89 | 93% | 85% |
A well calibrated model keeps the two columns close: "if we say 80%, about 8 of 10 should land".
Why these numbers matter
Most tipster sites only publish the winners. Here every prediction is recorded before kick-off and the misses stay in the table. Nothing is written by hand; the same engine feeds the daily pages.
Betting loses money; past accuracy is no guarantee. 18+.
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The long record: walk-forward, season by season
Every season below was predicted by the brain trained only on the seasons before it, with the price at kick-off - 44,249 matches it had never seen. Most likely pick landed 80.2%; of 20,404 picks called 80%+, 83.9% landed.
| Season | Matches | Most likely pick | Match result (1X2) | 80%+ picks | 80%+ landed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018/19 | 5,493 | 80.5% | 51.5% | 2,631 | 84.2% exp. 83.8% |
| 2019/20 | 5,200 | 80.6% | 50.1% | 2,693 | 84.1% exp. 84.2% |
| 2020/21 | 5,712 | 80.4% | 50.7% | 2,802 | 84.4% exp. 84.0% |
| 2021/22 | 5,672 | 80.3% | 51.0% | 2,519 | 83.3% exp. 83.8% |
| 2022/23 | 5,634 | 79.6% | 51.8% | 2,601 | 82.9% exp. 83.7% |
| 2023/24 | 5,603 | 80.0% | 52.6% | 2,593 | 84.3% exp. 84.1% |
| 2024/25 | 5,485 | 80.0% | 52.2% | 2,439 | 83.9% exp. 84.2% |
| 2025/26 | 5,450 | 80.0% | 51.3% | 2,126 | 83.5% exp. 83.9% |
See also
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